Content Strand 4: Probability and Statistics - Item Specification (8-2005)

PS01 (Probability) Demonstrate understanding of the concepts of complementary and mutually exclusive events; demonstrate understanding that probability is a ratio between and including 0 and 1; determine all possible outcomes and/or probabilities for simple experiments and situations including complementary and mutually exclusive events (1.4.1, 1.4.2)

Item Format:

· Multiple-Choice and Short-Answer items may be used to test this learning target.

Stimulus, Stem, and Prompt Rules:

· Stimulus may include pictures of objects such as game spinners, coins, chips, marbles, number cubes, diagrams, tables, charts, and graphs.
· A probability may be expressed as a percent, ratio, or decimal.

Mathematical Vocabulary and Terms:

· Terms that may be used: complementary, mutually exclusive, outcome, probability
· Terms that may be used with definitions or examples: combination, event, experiment, sample space
· Terms that may not be used: expected value, experimental probability, permutation, theoretical probability

Item Characteristics:

a) Items may ask students to identify mutually exclusive or complementary events.
b) Items may ask students to explain when events are complementary, mutually exclusive, or neither.
c) Items may ask students to list the outcomes of mutually exclusive or complementary events.
d) Items may ask students to identify or determine probabilities of experiments and situations including complementary or mutually exclusive events as a ratio, decimal, or percent.
e) Items may ask students to revise a game with unequal probabilities to make it a fair game.