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CMP -
How Likely Is It
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[GLE 1.3.3]
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Numbered assignments are listed on the day they are DUE!
Essential vocabulary: certain event, impossible event, chances, equally likely event, outcome, event, probability, experimental probability, theoretical probability
11-15-2004

1. -Page 16 Problem 2.2....
OBJECTIVE: Check the GLE Numbers Here [GLE3.2.1 Apply prediction and inference skills to
make or evaluate conjectures. * Predict the probability of
future events based on empirical data. [1.4.2] * Predict the
probability of outcomes of experiments and test the
predictions. ]•To gain experience finding experimental
probabilities of unequally likely events •To understand that
chance (probability) is an estimate of behavior over the long
run •To understand that to make good decisions based on
experimental probabilities, the probabilities must be based on
a large number of trials •To understand that a game of chance
is fair only if each player has the same chance of winning, not
just a possible chance of winning. ACTIVITIES/ASSESSMENT: DO
problem 2.2 on page 16. Do the follow-up on the computer using
larger numbers. Answer the same questions. Consolidate the
data. NOTES: 23coins.html. HOMEWORK: Page 18 5-11 (number 11 - make
a table, draw a picture, etc.)
[
Toss three coins at a time.....]
11-16-2004

1. -Homework: Page 18 5-11.....
2. -Page 111 Additional Practice 2...
OBJECTIVE: See 11-16 above. ACTIVITIES/ASSESSMENT: Do page 111,
Additional practice 2 - draw a picture, make a table, etc.
NOTES: Practice angle measure/protractor use. HOMEWORK: Page 20
#17
11-17-2004

1. -Homework: Page 20 #7.......
2. -Page 22 Problem 3.1all..
OBJECTIVE: Check the GLE Numbers Here [GLE 3.2.1 Apply prediction and inference skills to
make or evaluate conjectures. * Predict the probability of
future events based on empirical data. [1.4.2] * Predict the
probability of outcomes of experiments and test the
predictions. [1.4.2]] TEXT •To develop strategies for finding
experimental probabilities with a new simulation tool: spinners
•To understand that to make good decisions based on
experimental probabilities, the probabilities must be based on
a large number of trials [GLE 1.4.2] ACTIVITIES/ASSESSMENT:
Introduce page 22, Problem 3.1 and follow-up NOTES: Set up
demo using spinner.htm based on the 12 segments. Show a board
model. HOMEWORK: Page 25 2&3
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Spinner Simulations for Experimental Data]
11-18-2004

1. -Homework: Page 25 2&3......
2. -Page 24 #1..........
OBJECTIVE: See 11-17 above. ACTIVITIES/ASSESSMENT: Do the
spinner model for problem 3.1 as a demonstration of results for
larger numbers. Students will then do page 24 problem #1. They
may set up their own model using the computer programs. NOTES:
spinner.htm HOMEWORK: Page 28 1-4
11-19-2004

1. -Homework: Page 28 1-4......
OBJECTIVE: Check the GLE Numbers Here [GLE 3.2.1 Apply prediction and inference skills to
make or evaluate conjectures. * Predict the probability of
future events based on empirical data. [1.4.2] * Predict the
probability of outcomes of experiments and test the
predictions. [1.4.2]] TEXT •To understand the two ways to
obtain probabilities: by gathering data from experiments
(experimental probability) and by analyzing possible and
favorable outcomes (theoretical probability)[1.4.2]•To
understand the relationship between experimental and
theoretical probabilities: when an experimental probability is
based on a large number of trials, it is a good estimate of the
theoretical probability •To develop strategies for finding
theoretical probabilities, such as making an organized list of
all possible outcomes [1.4.2] •To develop an understanding of
the word random ACTIVITIES/ASSESSMENT: Start on page 29,
problem 4.1 introduction. Do page 30 Problem 4.1 and follow-up
activity. NOTES: Introduction to theoretical probability.
Review the meaning of RANDOM. HOMEWORK: Finish 4.1
[
Generate Simulated Experimental Data for the pick a block investigations...]
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